Something very interesting has happened while we were busy talking about the Great Recession. The Internet has moved into the "early majority" phase of Geoffrey Moore's technology (innovation) adoption lifecycle. This is the lifecycle:
The theory that Moore adopted from others before him states that the population adopts technology in this manner. The percentages break up the target market audience with 2.5% of the audience being innovators, 13.5% being early adopters, 68% in the majority, and 16% being laggards. Laggards adopt pretty much nothing or have to be pulled kicking and screaming into technology once 85% have already adopted. Moore improved the theory and said that there was a chasm between early adopters and the early majority (right there between 13.5% and 34% of the potential market). If a product doesn't break this chasm it fails and withers and dies (think BETA video tape and now music Compact Discs). The Internet it appears has broken through the Early Majority. (click on chart for a larger view).
The indicator show above is a simple one: the # of generic top level domain names that have been registered. A domain name is registered for any somewhat unique entity like a business, a person, or an idea. They are cheap, ubiquitous and easy to obtain. They must be maintained and usually derive some value for the owner. The curve of total registred gTLDs (.com and .net as well as .biz, .org and .info) is similar to the one proposed by Moore, chasm included (the .com bust). It continues to rise hitting 113.8M in Q42011, indicating that there is still more to be sold, marketed and invented to be described on the Internet. If you have ever tried to buy a domain name in the .com or .net TLD you know how hard it is to pick one that isn't already taken, not suprisingly.
The total number of top level domains (TLDs) hit over 225M which includes all the country code (ccTLDs). This indicates the late majority and laggards will enter the field (if they have not already) from international registrations that cannot or do not want to obtain a gTLD.
This is an important event, because it not only means that the Internet is here to stay (duh), but that the products and services that are now being developed should meet the needs of the late majority, the next biggest piece of the audience, equivalent in size to the early majority. I think this explains the rise of the tablet device: this is the access and consumption device that the late majority (and maybe even laggards) want. Now it is a question of the standards (HTML5?), the deployment platform (apps?) and the access (wireless LTE speeds?) that is required to power the biggest chunk of the audience that is yet to come.
This is an incredible opportunity for the Internet and all the companies that work online. Service the majority well, and you will be rewarded.